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KORELASI SST DAN CAPE PADA FASE IOD NEGATIF DAN LA NIÑA TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH JAWA BARAT DAN DKI JAKARTA

The study was conducted to analyze the correlation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to rainfall in the West Java and DKI Jakarta regions during the negative IOD phase and La Niña for the period 1982–2024. This study reveals the role of CAPE as a physical mediator between SST anomalies and extreme rainfall in the West Java and DKI Jakarta regions that have never been empirically measured in previous local studies. The data used in the study included rainfall data from 6 BMKG stations and ERA5 reanalysis, CAPE data and SST data from ERA5 reanalysis. The methods used include Pearson correlation analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), and composite climate phenomena. The findings of the study showed that the southern region of West Java (Citeko, Kertajati, and West Java Climatology) had a strong positive correlation between SST and rainfall (r = 0.54–0.61) and CAPE with rainfall (r = 0.75–0.82). In contrast, the northern coastal regions (Tanjung Priok and Kemayoran) showed a negative correlation between SST and rainfall (r = –0.28 to –0.32), reflecting an asymmetrical climate response. In addition, SST has been shown to affect rainfall indirectly through an increase in CAPE (r > 0.75 on the southern coast). Analysis of EOF and FFT confirms the dominance of the annual cycle in rainfall variability, but intra-seasonal components such as MJO also make a minor contribution. These findings emphasize the importance of explicit spatial approaches in modeling extreme rainfall predictions in tropical urban areas prone to flooding.

Availability
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Central Library (REFERENCE) T1909112025
T190911
Available but not for loan - Not for Loan
Detail Information
Series Title
-
Call Number
T1909112025
Publisher
Indralaya : Prodi Magister Ilmu Fisika Fakultas, Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Sriwijaya.,
Collation
xii, 128 hlm.; ilus.; tab.; 29 cm.
Language
Indonesia
ISBN/ISSN
-
Classification
551.560 7
Content Type
Text
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
-
Subject(s)
Meteorologi
Prodi Magister Ilmu Fisika
Specific Detail Info
-
Statement of Responsibility
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