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ANALISIS KORELASI SST DAN OLR PADA FASE IOD POSITIF DAN EL NIÑO TERHADAP DINAMIKA CURAH HUJAN DI DAERAH GAMBUT PESISIR TIMUR SUMATERA

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This study investigates the influence of large-scale climate variability on rainfall dynamics in the eastern coastal peatland region of Sumatra, an area highly vulnerable to drought and peatland fires. Rainfall variability in this region is strongly controlled by ocean–atmosphere interactions, particularly Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, comprehensive studies that integrate these climate drivers over a long-term period remain limited. The objectives of this research are to analyze the relationship between SST and OLR with rainfall variability and to identify rainfall patterns during El Niño, positive IOD, and their combined phases. Monthly rainfall data from six BMKG stations, along with SST and OLR data from ERA5 reanalysis and climate indices of Niño 3.4 and Dipole Mode Index (DMI), covering the period 1982–2024, were analyzed. The methodology includes climatological analysis, rainfall anomaly calculation, composite analysis, Pearson correlation, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The results show that rainfall in the eastern coastal region of Sumatra predominantly exhibits a bimodal pattern, while some locations display a unimodal pattern. Significant negative rainfall anomalies occurred during strong El Niño and positive IOD events, particularly in 1997–1998, 2015, and 2019. Correlation analysis reveals a strong positive relationship between SST and rainfall, while OLR shows a strong negative correlation, indicating the dominant role of convective processes. EOF analysis identifies the first mode as representing seasonal variability, while higher modes capture interannual variability associated with ENSO and IOD. FFT results further confirm dominant seasonal and interannual periodicities. These findings highlight the critical role of ocean–atmosphere interactions in controlling rainfall variability over peatland regions of eastern Sumatra and provide important implications for climate risk mitigation.

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Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

T1910722025

Publisher

Indralaya : Prodi Magister Ilmu Fisika Fakultas, Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Sriwijaya., 2025

Collation

xv, 129 hlm.; ilus.; tab.; 29 cm

Language

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

-

Classification

551.560 7

Content Type

Text

Media Type

-

Carrier Type

-

Edition

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Subject(s)

Meteorologi
Prodi Magister Ilmu Fisika

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

TUTI

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