Skripsi
ANALISIS POLA DAN TREN CURAH HUJAN HARIAN TERHADAP FENOMENA ENSO (EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) DI SUMATERA BAGIAN TENGAH
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the major drivers of global climate variability that influences rainfall characteristics in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the distribution patterns and trends of daily rainfall during El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral phases in Central Sumatra. The data consist of daily rainfall records from six observation stations, namely Minangkabau, Japura, Hang Nadim, Raja Haji Fisabilillah, Tarempa, and Dabo for the period 1995–2024. Prior to analysis, the data were subjected to quality control procedures to ensure completeness, temporal consistency, and the plausibility of observed values. Rainfall distribution patterns were analyzed using the Probability Density Function (PDF), while rainfall trends were examined using linear regression during the SON (September–October–November) period. Differences in daily rainfall distributions among ENSO phases were tested using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The results indicate shifts in rainfall distribution patterns across ENSO phases. During El Niño, rainfall tends to be lower with an increased probability of dry days, whereas during La Niña the rainfall distribution shifts toward higher intensities. The Neutral phase exhibits transitional characteristics between the two extremes. However, statistical tests show that these differences are not significant and that daily rainfall trends are relatively small, suggesting that ENSO is not the dominant factor controlling daily rainfall variability in the study area.
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