Skripsi
ANALISIS POLA DAN TREN CURAH HUJAN HARIAN KAITANNYA DENGAN ENSO (EL-NIÑO SOUTHTERN OSCILATION) DI PULAU PAPUA BAGIAN INDONESIA
This study aims to analyze the distribution patterns and trend tendencies of rainfall in the Indonesian part of Papua Island during the El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral phases over the period 1995–2024 using observational data. The analysis was conducted through Quality Control (QC) procedures to ensure data consistency and completeness, followed by the Probability Density Function (PDF) method to identify the characteristics of daily rainfall intensity distribution and simple linear regression to evaluate rainfall trends during the climatological SON period (September–October–November). The results indicate that low to moderate rainfall intensity (0–20 mm/day) dominates the distribution at all stations during all ENSO phases, while extreme rainfall events (>100 mm/day) are relatively rare and tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase, particularly at Tanah Merah Meteorological Station, which exhibits the highest variability. The linear regression analysis reveals no statistically significant linear trend overall, suggesting that rainfall variability is predominantly influenced by interannual fluctuations associated with ENSO dynamics. Overall, the impact of ENSO on rainfall in the Indonesian part of Papua Island is spatially non-uniform and strongly influenced by local and regional factors in each area.
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