Skripsi
FAKTOR EKSTERNAL LITHUANIA DALAM MENARIK DIRI DARI FORUM CHINA-CEEC
This study analyzes the external factors influencing Lithuania's foreign policy decision to withdraw from the China–Central and Eastern European Countries (China–CEEC) cooperation forum in 2021. Lithuania became the first country in the Central and Eastern European region to officially withdraw from the forum, despite having previously been actively involved in various areas of economic, diplomatic, educational, and infrastructure cooperation with China since joining in 2012. This study employs a qualitative approach using literature review methods and descriptive analysis techniques. The theoretical framework utilized is Neorealism, developed by Kenneth N. Waltz, with three primary dimensions of analysis: the distribution of capabilities, the security dilemma, and the balance of power. This study identifies three interrelated external factors. First, the shift in the global balance of power resulting from China's rise has forced Lithuania, with its limited capabilities, to fully align itself with the West. Second, China's expansion through the China–CEEC forum is perceived as a geopolitical threat that creates a security dilemma, given that economic dependence could potentially be used as a tool for political pressure by Beijing. Third, Lithuania pursues a strategy of external balancing by strengthening its alliances with the European Union and NATO, which actively pressure Vilnius to maintain distance from China. This study concludes that the foreign policy of a small country like Lithuania is heavily determined by the structural pressures of an anarchic international system, thereby forcing Lithuania to choose the geopolitical position that best ensures its security and national interests.
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